It's always a shame when it happens on a weigh in day. The scale is up from last week.
[Insert the Price is Right "blew it" music] Bomp bomp ba-Baaa... WHAAaaaaa" *laugh*

How to Analyze a Gain
I've actually wanted to blog about this for a while.
When the scale is up or doesn't move, it is important that you be honest with yourself when you look at what is going on.

The Scale
I try to only weigh myself once per week, but in this case, I'm glad I did a mid-week weigh in. Here is what I see:

Saturday 1/12 - Weight 236.5
Wednesday 1/17 - Weight 235
Saturday 1/19 - Weight 237

The loss of 1.5 lbs seems realistic for a 5 day period given my intake. Now my foods for Thursday and Friday were almost stellar, so the odds that somehow I consumed 7000 calories too much and gained 2 lbs of fat are completely unrealistic.

The Bodyfat
I didn't take my bodyfat on 1/17, but I did today. This is interesting:

Saturday 1/12 - 27.2% (172.2 lbs lean mass, 64.3 lbs fat)
Wednesday 1/17 - ???
Saturday 1/19 - 26.3% (173.7 lbs lean mass, 63.3 lbs fat)

So, according to this, I lost a pound of fat and gained a pound and a half of lean mass. *laugh* As nice as that sounds... that didn't happen either. (This was calculated using an Omron handheld electrostatic device which often mistakes water for lean mass)

So far, it sounds like my scale weight is the result of water gremlins... but lets keep looking.

The Week's Calorie Intake
To understand today, we have to look at the intake for the previous week.

Saturday 1/12 - Total Calories: 14,243 (averages out to an 18% deficit for the week)
Saturday 1/19 - Total Calories: 14,522 (averages out to a 17% deficit for the week)

That calorie total is net (calories eaten minus calories lost through exercise)... So according to this, I had the same basic intake, but last week I lost 3 lbs and this week I gained a pound? That doesn't make sense either. Still sounds like water gremlins.

The Week's Exercise
Since those are net calories, how many calories did I burn through exercise last week vs this week?

Saturday 1/12 - Cardio on 3 days for a total of 2260 calories which means I ate 16503 calories.
Saturday 1/19 - Cardio on 4 days for a total of 3053 calories which means I ate 17575 calories.

So, I exercised more and gained weight? What the heck kind of message is that?? *laugh* Actually, there may be something here... I ate 1000 calories more this week even though the net calories broke even. My cardio also wasn't as intense this week (after the first 1100 day anyway)... but I'll save my theories for the conclusion of this blog. There is still more to consider...

The Metabolism
To avoid falling into starvation mode where you burn muscle and your metabolism drops, men are advised to keep net intake at or above 1800, and women, 1200. Further, if you keep your body in a calorie deficit for too long, it will adapt by lowering your metabolism to match intake. This function is difficult to explore, because of all of the variables involved, but the rule I follow is "no more than three days in a deficit". Another rule is to not let your intake deficit dip below 30%.

So, has my metabolism dropped? Well, I had 4 days at a deficit... but frankly, that shouldn't have a dramatic impact. I've gone 4 days in a 30% deficit before and I lost 4 lbs that week.

What else could be going on?

The Binge?
Did I binge? Well... Yes and no. As I have mentioned (probably every day this week), I had a 3000 calorie day... but I followed it with a 1300ish calorie day thanks to heavy cardio. Now, check this out:

The plan for those two days: 2500 calories and 1800 calories. 2500+1800 = 4300 calories.
My net intake for those two days: 3000 calories and 1300 calories. 3000 + 1300 = 4300 calories.

So, while I didn't take the best route to get there, the net for those two days was right on track, and I didn't starve myself to get there.

The Telegraph
In my experience, what you do to your body today doesn't show up for 2 or 3 days. To figure out what happened today, I should probably look at Wednesday to Wednesday, or Thursday to Thursday... but to be honest, I have been so on-track the past few days, I bet if I weigh myself on Monday, I'll be right at 234 or 234.5.

The Possibilities
Okay - now that we've looked at the big picture, I'm left with a number of explanations for the scale weight today.
1) I decreased the intensity of my cardio this week, but kept the duration the same. Did this decrease my afterburn? (The calories you burn after your workout) I'm sure it did, but not significantly. Since I burned almost 1000 calories more this week through exercise, I doubt it is relevant.

2) I missed my 3 day low 1 day high cycle. Did my metabolism crash? I'm sure there was a small effect, but the high calorie day I took after the 4th low day would have rescued me.

3) Did my 3000/1300 cycle screw me up? Well, it didn't help, but I doubt it would have caused a significant problem for me today.

Conclusion: You Know If You've Blown It
You might have noticed that I'm not flipping out or depressed about the scale numbers. I'm not upset about it because I know that I have been reasonably on-target this week.

Everything points to water weight today. I haven't had a significant "failure" this week (like a 1500 calorie binge, or a whole week without working out). In fact, as long as I am at 17-19% deficit total and have at least 2 high days during the week, I'm right where I need to be.

Looking back at my weight loss trend for the last 6 weeks:
250 lbs start
244 lbs 6 lb loss
243 lbs 1 lb loss
243.5 lbs .5 lb gain
239.5 lbs 4 lb loss
236.5 lbs 3 lb loss
237 lbs .5 lb gain

The scale stuck for about 3 weeks, then I posted a 7 lb loss in 2 weeks. That isn't a reflection of my actual body fat loss... it's just my composition shifting around.

So, next week, I may not have a scale loss... but the week after, for sure.

The Problem with Losing 2 lbs Per Week
Common dieting wisdom says that you shouldn't lose more than 2 lbs a week. The problem with this figure is that you can gain and lose 2 lbs or more in a matter of hours during the day as you eat, drink and excrete. The result is that you may appear to plateau one week, then lose 4 lbs the next. As an experiment, I hopped on the scale after breakfast this morning and it said 238.5. That would mean that I am up 2 to 2.5 lbs for the week. This is completely normal.

... man... these things just keep getting longer and longer. If I end up losing 60 lbs by July like I want to, I won't have to write a book - I'll just drop my blog off with a publisher

Final Note for the Evening
Well... I did it to myself again *laugh* I did a great job of adding 250 calories to the start of the day today, then cut one potato out of my lunch to bring the calorie count down, but I didn't work out this morning and I missed my afternoon snack. So, I ended the day after an AWESOME dinner of Salmon, brown rice and zucchini with a choice:

I could either figure out how to eat 500 more calories tonight (in a healthy way) to make today a high calorie day...

or

Go to the gym and burn off 218 calories and stick to plan, making today a low day.

I stuck to plan... though I felt like the world's biggest weenie only working the treadmill for 18 minutes *laugh*

'Night
--B